This warrants a closer look as some discussion. We have...questions, after seeing this high-quality footage of the incident. We will be updating this post as we have more time to analyze and discuss.
UPDATE - May 11th, 2025:
After spending some time reviewing this footage and listening to other reports about the events of the evening, I'm not convinced much of what is being reported is accurate. For example, reports have been that "an Agent" was "struck by a single pellet from the suspect's shotgun" which was "loaded with buckshot."
Take a close look at the video above. The Officer at the bottom-left of the screen appears to be local PD, not Secret Service. The same goes for the three Officers leaning against the far wall. The Officer at the bottom of the screen seems to be the first to notice the suspect approaching rapidly, with what appears to be a shotgun in hand. Somehow he runs right in front of, and past the Officers on the back wall, and they don't seem to react at all.
But the Officer in the bottom-left does react, drawing his sidearm and firing multiple times. The muzzle flash from his [likely] 9mm handgun is clear in these images. Each time he fires, there is a clear fireball that appears in front of the muzzle.
Reports have been that the moment we see the suspect passing through the metal detector and raising the muzzle of his shotgun towards the officers at the bottom of the screen, is the same moment the suspect fires. But there is no noticeable muzzle flash from his shotgun. As someone familiar with all sorts of firearms, this is just the first inconsistency I am noticing with reporting thus far.
For comparison, the image below shows several 9mm cartridges, most likely what the officer was firing, compared to a 12ga Buckshot round, reportedly fired by the suspect.
I find it very hard to believe that the much larger shotgun shell, with much more gunpowder, would show no noticeable muzzle flash in the video, while the smaller 9mm rounds had a clear muzzle flash. It's true the shotgun barrel is longer, but that should not be sufficient to eliminate the muzzle flash entirely.
Then there's the "Agent" who reportedly was struck by a single pellet from the suspect's Buckshot, in their bullet-proof vest. Most common Buckshot loads for defensive/offensive purposes are 00 buck, containing 8-9 pellets that are each similar in diameter to a single 9mm projectile. These pellets spread slightly over distance, once fired from the muzzle of a shotgun.
On average, Shotgun loads fired at 3 yards from the target, will have only spread out over about a 2-inch area. At 7 yards, that opens up to about a 5-inch spread. And by 10 yards, that further increases to about 8-inches. This means a target about 10 yards from the shooter, would see the majority of the 8-9 buckshot pellets, still hitting within about an 8-inch area. Shooting Illustrated has a good write-up on shotgun spread over HERE.
Given that information, if the suspect had fired as he passed through the metal detector, appearing to be between 3 and 5 yards from the officer he is running towards, it would be reasonable to expect the majority of the 8-9 pellets would have still been in a tight pattern of 5 inches or less. This makes it seem unlikely that only a single pellet would have made contact.
Now for the real issue I have with this video and the reporting around it; or should I say, what isn't being reported.
Nearly every shot the Officer at the lower-left takes is directed not only towards the suspect, but also towards fellow Officers and Agents. One of the cardinal rules of firearm safety is: Always be certain of your target and what’s beyond it.
Here, we see an example of that rule being ignored. And as a result, in my opinion, this video appears to show the middle officer on the back wall being struck by a stray bullet fired by the Officer in the bottom-left. You can see the moment he fires (muzzle flash) and his pistol appears to be aimed directly at the Officers on the back wall. The second that shot is fired, you see the middle officer back there react and then double-over, as the other officers assist them in retreating. This could be a coincidence, but that is the only officer we can see in the video react as if they have been shot. Further, once the suspect is no longer visible after passing from the right side of the frame, none of the approaching Officers or Agents appear to fire any additional shots. If the suspect had fired after he was no longer visible on the camera, it seems likely that Officers/Agents would have returned fire.
Maybe it's just me. I'm not trying to traffic in conspiracy theories, but rather make logical observations based on what we can see in the released footage and based on my personal knowledge of firearms. What do you all think? Let us know in the comments.
